All Four Major Banks Now Predict an RBA Rate Rise in March 2026 — What Australian Borrowers Need to Know
In a rare show of consensus, all four of Australia’s biggest banks — Commonwealth Bank (CBA), National Australia Bank (NAB), Westpac, and ANZ — have updated their forecasts and now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the official cash rate at its board meeting on 16–17 March 2026. If confirmed, this would push the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.10%, with a further hike to 4.35% expected in May.
For Australian borrowers already navigating cost-of-living pressures, this is a critical moment to review your home loan and take action.
Why Are All Four Banks Now Predicting a March Rate Rise?
The shift in forecasts follows remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who indicated that inflation is running hotter than expected — partly driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed global oil prices higher. Australia’s January headline CPI came in at 3.8%, while trimmed mean inflation edged up to 3.4%, both above the RBA’s 2–3% target range.
CBA’s head of Australian economics, Belinda Allen, noted that “the March board meeting is being set in a very different context to what was expected just two weeks ago.” ANZ economists echoed this view, writing that “increased inflation risks will exacerbate concerns, creating more urgency to move quickly.”
Bond markets are now pricing in up to 68 basis points of additional rate hikes in 2026 — potentially taking the cash rate to nearly 4.60% by year end.
How Much More Will Borrowers Pay?
The numbers are sobering. According to analysis by Canstar, three consecutive 25 basis point hikes would have the following impact on variable rate borrowers:
- $600,000 loan: approximately $3,262 extra per year
- $1,000,000 loan: approximately $5,436 extra per year
- $1,500,000 loan: approximately $8,160 extra per year
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall warned that “three rate hikes in quick succession will be more than a triple whammy because households are also juggling the end of the electricity rebate, a potential price hike to private hospital premiums, skyrocketing petrol prices, and the continued rising cost of everyday groceries.”
Importantly, these hikes would wipe out all three rate cuts delivered in 2025 — effectively resetting borrowers to 2024 interest rate levels.
Your Secret Weapon: Home Equity
Despite the challenging environment, many Australian homeowners have a powerful tool available — their home equity. Property values in most capital cities have continued to rise, meaning many borrowers now own a significantly larger share of their home than when they first took out their loan.
According to Canstar, 5 of the 10 lowest refinancing rates in Australia are exclusively available to borrowers who own 40% or more of their property. If your equity has grown to this level, you may be eligible for substantially more competitive rates than what you’re currently paying.
A difference of just 0.5 percentage points on a $600,000 loan could reduce your interest costs by $6,000 per year.
The key insight? “Banks don’t usually call you to tell you your property value has gone up.” If you want the better rate, you often have to ask for it — or be willing to walk.
What Should You Do Right Now?
With the RBA meeting just days away, now is the time to act — not after rates have already risen. Here are three steps to consider:
- Review your current rate: Find out exactly what interest rate you’re paying. Many borrowers are on rates that are far higher than they need to be.
- Get a property valuation: Understanding your current equity position is the first step to accessing more competitive loan options.
- Speak to a mortgage broker: A broker can compare options across multiple lenders to find the right home loan for your needs — and help you act before the next rate rise takes effect.
Don’t wait for your bank to come to you. With all four major banks aligned on further rate rises ahead, borrowers who act now are best positioned to manage their mortgage costs through what could be a challenging few months.
Need personalised assistance?
Contact Daniel Nguyen, Mortgage Broker at Finance Hub and Networks.
📞 0430 11 11 88
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