ANZ has changed its tune on rate cuts
If you’ve been holding out for another RBA rate cut, ANZ’s latest forecast is worth paying attention to. The bank’s economics team now believes the easing cycle is finished — with the cash rate sitting at 3.60% and likely staying there for the foreseeable future.
This is a shift from earlier predictions. At the start of 2025, most major banks expected the RBA to cut rates several more times. ANZ initially forecast a final cut in the first half of 2026, but has now walked that back entirely.
What changed?
Persistent inflation is the short answer. While the RBA has delivered some relief — cutting from the 4.35% peak — underlying price pressures haven’t eased as quickly as hoped. ANZ’s head of Australian economics, Adam Boyton, pointed to a combination of sticky services inflation and a labour market that remains tight by historical standards.
ANZ isn’t alone in this view. NAB has also pulled back from forecasting further cuts, and CBA has trimmed its expectations. Westpac remains the outlier, still projecting cuts could bring the rate down to around 3.10% — but even that forecast carries caveats.
What does this mean if you have a home loan?
Variable rate borrowers: If you’re on a variable rate, this is likely as low as your repayments will go for a while. It’s a good time to review whether your current rate is competitive. Lenders don’t always pass on the full benefit of past cuts, and there can be a meaningful difference between what you’re paying and what’s available in the market right now.
Fixed rate borrowers: If your fixed term is expiring soon, you’ll be rolling off into a rate environment that may not move much lower. Getting ahead of that expiry — rather than waiting — gives you more time to compare options.
Buyers and refinancers: The current rate environment still represents a significant drop from the 4.35% peak. If you’ve been waiting for “the bottom,” this may well be it. Waiting for further cuts that may not come could mean missing opportunities in the property market or continuing to pay more than necessary on an existing loan.
The bottom line
Rate cycles don’t announce their endings. If ANZ, NAB, and CBA are right, the window of falling rates has closed. That doesn’t mean rates are going up — but it does mean the smart move is to make sure your current loan is working as hard as it can at today’s rates, rather than hoping for further relief.
If you’d like to check whether your rate is still competitive, or if a refinance could put you in a stronger position, feel free to get in touch. A quick review takes 15 minutes and there’s no obligation.
Daniel Nguyen
Finance Hub and Networks
📞 0430 11 11 88
📧 daniel@finhub.net.au
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Credit assistance provided. This page does not constitute financial advice.
