April’s inflation data just landed, and it paints a complicated picture for Australian borrowers. Headline CPI fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in March, largely driven by the temporary halving of the fuel excise. But underlying inflation — the number the Reserve Bank actually watches — ticked up to 3.4%, its first increase this year.
What happened
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released monthly CPI data for April showing a split result. Petrol prices fell roughly 7% between March and April after surging earlier in the year, pulling the headline number down. But strip out that volatility and the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean measure nudged higher to 3.4% — still well above the 2–3% target band the central bank is aiming for.
Diesel prices climbed around 14% over the same period, and higher oil costs from the ongoing Middle East conflict are flowing through to freight and services. The cost of everyday goods and services continues to rise, even as fuel provides temporary relief at the bowser.
What this means for you
All four major banks — CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ — now expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35% when it meets on June 15-16. That’s a potential breather after three consecutive hikes earlier in 2026 that added around $272 per month to repayments on a $600,000 variable mortgage.
However, the banks are split on what comes next. CBA and ANZ believe the hiking cycle is over. Westpac is tipping two more increases in August and September, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%. NAB expects one more in August, reaching 4.60%.
A pause — if it happens — gives borrowers a window to act. If you haven’t reviewed your home loan rate since the hikes started, now’s the time. The gap between sitting on a rate above 7% and switching to a competitive rate under 6% could translate to meaningful savings over the life of your loan.
The lowest variable owner-occupier rates on the market are currently around 5.69%, while a competitive rate sits at roughly 5.99% from around 40 lenders. If you took out your loan several years ago and haven’t renegotiated, there’s a strong chance you’re paying more than you need to.
Talk to a Finance Hub broker — call 0430 11 11 88 or visit finhub.net.au
Source: Canstar, 27 May 2026
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Aggregated through Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd, ABN 51 143 651 496, ACL 389328. Credit assistance provided. This page does not constitute financial advice.
