The latest house price forecast 2026 from National Australia Bank has buyers and homeowners asking what comes next. If you are weighing up a home loan this year, here is what the numbers actually mean for your plans.
What happened
NAB’s June Housing Monitor expects dwelling prices across Australia’s capital cities to ease by around 2 per cent over 2026. Sydney and Melbourne are forecast to lead the slowdown, with values in those two cities tipped to fall between 6 and 7 per cent.
National prices were flat in May — the softest monthly result since late 2024. Over the month, Sydney dwelling values slipped 0.9 per cent and Melbourne 0.8 per cent, and both are now recording falls on a six-month basis. Many mid-sized capitals are still rising, just more slowly. Nationally, prices remain about 8.8 per cent higher over the past year, with the median dwelling value sitting near $940,000.
NAB links the cooling to the federal budget’s changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing, which reduce incentives for investment in established housing, alongside higher interest rates. New housing loan commitments fell 3.8 per cent in the March quarter, and investor activity is expected to pull back further. Encouragingly, home loan arrears remain low at around 1 per cent.
What this means for you
First home buyers and owner-occupiers: a flatter market can mean less competition and more room to negotiate. Buyers who line up their finance early are often better placed to act with confidence when the right property appears.
Investors: with the tax changes reshaping the numbers, it is worth reviewing how a purchase stacks up on rental income alone before you commit.
Existing homeowners: softer conditions are a good prompt to review your current rate and structure, so your repayments stay manageable through a changing market.
Every situation is different, and a forecast is not a guarantee — the right move depends on your income, goals and timing. Talking it through early can help you avoid costly surprises.
Talk to a Finance Hub mortgage broker — call 0430 11 11 88 or visit finhub.net.au.
Source: Broker Daily, 17 June 2026.
Finance Hub and Networks Pty Ltd | ACL 573164 | ACN 644 141 613. This article is general information only and does not take into account your personal circumstances.
